Affine term structure estimation and policy announcement effects in Korea
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초록

This study estimates a three-factor affine term structure model using Korean government and corporate bond yields to examine how Bank of Korea policy rate changes affect the yield curve. By decomposing 3-year bond yields into expected short-rate and term premium components, we conduct event studies around fifteen major policy announcements. The results show that most yield movements are driven by changes in expected short rates, highlighting the role of forward guidance in the Korean context. Highlights Monetary policy effects in Korea are mainly driven by expected short-term rates. Term premiums primarily reflect compensation for interest rate and inflation risks. Monetary policy announcement effects depend on macro conditions.

키워드

expectations channelmonetary policy effectivenessterm premiumterm structure modelUNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY-POLICYUNCERTAINTY EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCESMALL OPEN-ECONOMYSTRUCTURE MODELSPREMIAINFLATIONMACROECONOMICSTRANSMISSIONSURPRISESFORECASTS
제목
Affine term structure estimation and policy announcement effects in Korea
저자
Song, JoonhyukAhn, ByungminRyu, Doojin
DOI
10.1080/10293523.2025.2534930
발행일
2025-08-21
유형
Article; Early Access
저널명
Investment Analysts Journal