Bargaining between Giants: Reassessing South Korea's Military Options in a Taiwan War

초록

The US-China confrontation over Taiwan presents US regional partners with a common challenge: balancing Washington's demands for military support against China with Beijing's pressure to prevent external interference. Between neutrality and direct military participation, regional partners face a spectrum of potential military roles. This paper examines South Korea, analyzing four military roles: status quo, low-enabling, high-enabling, and direct participation. For each role, we explore how Seoul can manage the dual pressures from Washington and Beijing, while achieving a stable equilibrium aligned with its national security interests. The central challenge for regional states navigating their role in a Taiwan conflict is to exercise agency between US and China-mitigating entrapment risks by securing US security assurances and controlling escalation risks with China through active diplomacy. The findings offer insight into how US regional allies might navigate the Taiwan issue and its broader implications for East Asia's security landscape.

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